Grocery Prices, Tariffs, and the Stupidity of Repeating History

Raising cane (Adobe).

If you think groceries are expensive now, just wait—this winter they could double.

Back in March, I wrote about McKinley’s tariffs and how history showed us exactly what happens when governments play with trade barriers. You can revisit that post here:
https://www.concretelogicpodcast.com/blog/mckinleys-tariffs-a-lesson-from-history/

Fast forward to September, and here we are—on the edge of repeating the same mistakes.

Raymond Robertson, an economist at Texas A&M, recently predicted that produce prices could rise 50 to 100% this winter (Fortune). At my house, groceries are already our single biggest expense. They’re downright asinine, and yet we’re being told to brace for potentially doubling produce costs—which will inevitably ripple into the rest of the grocery store.

Robertson points to two reasons:

1. Expelling the immigrants who actually harvest the food.

2. Tariffs.

Now, we already know what tariffs do—we’ve seen this movie before. They choke supply chains, drive up costs, and hammer everyday folks the hardest. McKinley, while in Congress, pushed tariffs in the 1890s, and later as President, his party doubled down with the Dingley Act. The result? Temporary protection for industry, long-term pain for consumers, and eventually a swing back toward tariff reform.

And here’s the kicker: our lawmakers—millionaires and billionaires, insulated from the cost of a gallon of milk or a pound of beef—don’t feel what you and I feel at the checkout line. Everyday people just want to send their kids to decent schools and put food on the table. Instead, they’re getting squeezed harder and harder.

So, is this stupidity—or is it intentional? At some point you wonder if the real aim is to keep the lower and middle classes subdued, dependent, and tired. Either way, the refusal to learn from our past is staggering. Leaders 250 years ago had foresight and backbone. Leaders 100 years ago were often unscrupulous, cutting deals to line their own pockets. And today? I’d argue our leaders are even dumber, with less connection to reality than either group.

Something has to change. That starts with us educating ourselves and stopping the cycle of voting the same boneheads back into office over and over again. In the 2024 elections, 95% of incumbents were re-elected (Ballotpedia). That number should make you sick.

And if you want a practical tip while we wait for this train wreck to play out—take a look at what’s already happening with sugar. Organic sugar prices are surging (Virginian-Pilot). Personally, I don’t eat sugar. Maybe now’s a good time for others to think about limiting their intake as well—not just for your health, but for your wallet.

Predictably, the midterms next year will swing power to the other party, and the pendulum will just keep swinging. Same mistakes, different faces.

If you’ve read this far and you disagree—convince me otherwise. I’d love to hear it.